I've got a wife and young kids so I just don't make it out to the movies much anymore. The Academy Awards nominations came out this morning and I think I've seen one of the nominees. Therefore, I couldn't possibly provide a good opinion on how the Oscars will shake out. Fortunately for me and you, Barry Stagg offered to write a post on the nominations. Here's what I know about Barry. He has a theater degree & opinions and he's not afraid to use either. Barry's also a great follow on twitter (
@bcstagg), so make sure you do that.
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I am a self proclaimed Academy Awards fanatic. I see every movie nominated for Best Picture and each movie with an acting nomination. This normally wasn’t too difficult, but with the field expanding to 10 movies for Best Picture it became more difficult. Some people are mad the field expanded because they feel it’s just a ploy to try and boost ticket sales. Those people are 100 percent correct. I, however, do not begrudge the Academy. As long as movies like
The Green Hornet and
Little Fockers are leading in the box office, I am in full support of rallying the public to see quality films.
As I set out to pick the winners of the major categories, the voting process for determining the winners should be noted. After expanding to 10 films, the Best Picture winner is graded on a points system. Meaning 10 points for 1st place and 1 point for for 10th place. Most points wins. The Academy used to only allow voters one first place vote and most votes wins. I prefer the current system. All that in mind, let’s get to the picks.
Best Picture
Will win: The King’s Speech - Really picked up steam by getting the Producer’s Guild Award for Best Picture. This movie is a clinic in acting. Great all the way around, but doesn’t leave you with that “wow” feeling you want from your Best Picture.
My Favorite: Black Swan - This movie had that “wow” feeling. I was completely engrossed in the portrayal. Aronofsky combines the visceral feelings from Requiem for a Dream, the stunning visuals of The Fountain, and the great story telling of The Wrestler to make, what I think, is his best film.
Sleeper: The Social Network - Hard to call this a sleeper because it’s thought to be the odds on favorite. It will win Best Director and Screenplay, so it wouldn’t shock me if it ended up winning Best Picture.
Best Actress
Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan - Just brilliant. Her performance also has things that Academy voters love to vote for. She lost weight, she trained in ballet, and she played crazy.
My Favorite: Natalie Portman,
Black Swan - It just makes me mad when I see a performance like Portman’s to think that Sandra Bullock won for The Blindside. Ugh.
Sleeper: Annette Benning, The Kids Are All Right - Gives a great understated performance. It would have been easy for her to miss the control it takes to pull off that character, but she kept it together just enough to make it stunningly believable.
Best Actor
Will Win: Colin Firth,
The King’s Speech - Firth so brilliantly portrays the Duke of York. His stammer is spot on and almost gets uncomfortable to watch because his ability to communicate is so difficult. Firth’s brilliance is shown in his ability to still carry a scene and tell a great story while having the inherent hinderance of his character’s speech impediment.
My Favorite: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech - It helps when you have Geoffrey Rush to play opposite against.
Sleeper: James Franco, 127 Hours - Franco WAS 127 Hours. 127 Hours is a Best Picture nominee and he’s 90 percent of the movie. Franco captivates you. A brilliant one man show. (I wish we got a little more Lizzy Caplan in 127 Hours though.)
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter - Probably the best performance on screen this year. And, he plays a drug addict. The Academy loves that. He also lost weight. Nothing like what he did for The Machinist, but he’s pretty thin.
My Favorite: Christian Bale,
The Fighter - He gets points in my book for wearing cleats as shoes and “jorts” at different points throughout the movie.
Sleeper: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech - It’s unfortunate he has to go up against Bale this year because he was great to watch work on screen. Had the difficult task of communicating with a character who has a debilitating speech impediment.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Melissa Leo,
The Fighter - Her performance reminds me a lot of Amy Ryan’s in
Gone Baby Gone. Makes herself unlikeable, but yet somehow you care for her. And the sympathy she gains is what makes her performance great.
My Favorite: Amy Adams, The Fighter - I’ve been an Amy Adams fan since Junebug. I just love this adorable red head. Her exchanges with Melissa Leo and the sisters are particularly great.
Sleeper: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit - She had a very tall task playing against Jeff Bridges, but she did so swimmingly. In a movie where character exchanges drove the movie, she was a large part of a lot of them.
Best Director
Will Win: David Fincher,
The Social Network - Somehow he managed to turn the creation of Facebook into a thrilling story. He also got great performances out his actors, which can be difficult with the snappy wordy dialogue of Aaron Sorkin.
My Favorite: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours - One man shows don’t often captivate a movie going audience (see Phone Booth), but Boyle was really great a telling a gripping story. He used his score brilliantly and got the best out of Franco. Shame he wasn’t even nominated, though I knew he didn’t have a chance.
Sleeper: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech - King’s Speech was beautifully shot and was a lesson in story telling. (If you can’t tell, I have a very Aristotelian point of view in that plot/story is paramount).
Best Screenplay(Original)
Will Win:
The King’s Speech - Behind all great movies and great performances there has to be great source material.
The King’s Speech is no exception. It gave all those wonderful actors plenty to sink their teeth into.
My Favorite: Black Swan - As a member of the entertainment industry, I was especially drawn to the subject matter. It’s not too far from reality. This is a snub, in my opinion. Another Year snatched the fifth spot.
Sleeper: The Kids Are All Right - This is just one of those movies that paid attention to every character, made them rich, and told a nice even story. You really can’t poke any holes in the screenplay.
Best Screenplay(adapted)
Will Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network - It helps that he had a lot of the complicated and tedious research done for him by Ben Mezrich, but kudos for weaving those elements into a great story.
My Favorite:
The Social Network - In 2009 Aaron Sorkin came to where I work and gave an interview after one of our performances of
The Farnsworth Invention, which he wrote. There he said he was busy working on a “Facebook movie.” I remember laughing to myself and thinking how bad it was going to be. I was wrong. Point - Sorkin.
Sleeper: Winter’s Bone - Sundance’s darling was the big winner this year, snagging a Best Picture nomination over The Town and a Best Supporting Actor nomination over Andrew Garfield of The Social Network. So it wouldn’t surprise me if it up and snagged a screenplay win while it was at it.
Best Score
Will Win: Trent Reznor,
The Social Network - I believe this one to be a lock. Trent Reznor’s score deserves as much praise as Fincher’s directing and Sorkin’s writing, if not more. It really drove the movie and made it thrilling.
My Favorite: Trent Reznor, The Social Network - I would have liked to have seen him have Justin Timberlake lay down a hook on something, but then again, he’s the one nominated not me.
Sleeper: A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours - Rahman is best known for his score to Slumdog Millionaire, but he teamed up with snubbed director Danny Boyle again this year to deliver another dynamite product.
Notable Snubs
- The Town for Best Picture. I’m pretty upset at this one. This was a fantastic movie that had great performances and a lot of heart for what I thought was just going to be a heist flick. I’m getting more impressed with Ben Affleck every day.
- Christopher Nolan for directing Inception. Say what you will about the movie, but the prowess of Nolan can’t be overstated.
- Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine. I don’t see how you can nominate Michelle Williams and not Ryan Gosling. Gosling delivers an absolutely powerful and gritty performance. Real acting on full display. His performances in Blue Valentine and Half Nelson are two of the best.
- Black Swan for Best Original Screenplay. Seemed to be poised for a nomination especially with its Writer’s Guild nomination in the bag. Another Year must be a pretty good movie to push out Swan.
- Mila Kunis for Best Supporting Actress. I can’t say I’m too surprised here, but she had the SAG nomination and and a lot of press. Plus she’s beautiful, and I like that in a girl.
- Andrew Garfield for Best Supporting Actor. I breathed a sigh of relief when I didn’t see Justin Timberlake as a nominee, but I was equally as sad to see Garfield left off. However, John Hawkes was particularly awesome as Teardrop in Winter’s Bone. This category is the most loaded this year.
- Danny Boyle for Best Director. With Nolan getting snubbed, I was hoping Boyle would step in and grab a nomination but that went to David O. Russell or the Coen Brothers
Who are your winners?
What are your biggest snubs or surprises?
